2013 – My Look Ahead – I’m Seeing Video
2013 – My Look Ahead – I’m Seeing Video by Jon Arnold
Last week, the UCStrategies group did its look-ahead podcast, and with so many analysts and consultants eager to share their crystal ball, we didn’t each get much air time. If you’ve checked out the podcast, you’ll know there many strong themes that will impact the UC space in 2013, and I could easily have picked any one of them to focus my year-end/year-ahead post on.
UC continues to be a work in progress, and that doesn’t make life easier for anybody. IT decision makers will continue to struggle figuring out which platform, applications, vendors, standards, etc., to put their money on. The channel will struggle transitioning from hardware to software, along with finding a balance between premise and cloud. Vendors are equally challenged trying to figure out what the market will actually buy, along with wondering where the next disruptive force will come from.
I’m definitely a fan of video, and can see how all of the above will be relevant in this space for 2013. Looking at the vendors, I think video will be one of the biggest drivers, certainly right up there with BYOD. I just want to quickly touch on the three majors for North America – Cisco, Microsoft and Avaya. Cisco may be the clear leader in immersive telepresence, but even they have had to re-focus on the emerging desktop video space. This may lead to weaker revenues since desktop is much less costly, but it also opens up the market for Cisco. They’ve done a good job with Jabber, and remain very competitive, especially in the enterprise market.
Microsoft seems well positioned, as Lync UC is very desktop-centric, making video an easy add-on for Windows users. They don’t have the legacy baggage of a telecom vendor, and the faster video is adopted on Lync, the less it matters that Microsoft lacks a true voice solution. What matters more is owning the desktop, and if that’s where video is going to be in 2013, Microsoft is in good shape. Let’s not forget Skype, which could still be a huge wildcard. Their consumer base will always be there, but Skype also has an SMB following; and if Microsoft can work this into Lync, I think there can be a nice UC value-add here for SMBs or even SOHOs.
Then there’s Avaya. Everyone has an opinion about their apparent demise and weak financials, so it’s easy to conclude this is a two-horse race. They too, still have a substantial customer base, and while it’s fair to say their priorities will be more about customer retention than acquisition, Avaya remains an important player. Not only do they keep Cisco and Microsoft honest, but Avaya has been undergoing its fair share of transformation to stay on top of the UC space.
The key thing to watch for in 2013 is how they parlay the Radvision acquisition. If you base their survival prospects on the success of migrating customers to IP PBX, then you are correct on reaching a “not going to make it” conclusion. However, their UC portfolio is solid, and is becoming increasingly video-centric. Having partnered with Polycom for room-based telepresence systems, they’re not burdened with this going forward on the books. If Avaya can transition their UC value proposition from voice-based to video-based, they’ll be able offer a collaboration solution that’s on par with Cisco or Microsoft. I think that can keep them in the running through 2013, but a lot of things will have to go their way.
As enticing as UC is for buyers, none of the sellers have managed to get it right yet. While the tablet looked poised to be a big driver for UC, Cisco went from an early entry to an early exit with Cius, and Avaya’s Flare hasn’t done much to dislodge the iPad. Apple owns this market now, but they’re not a UC player, so yet again, there is very little in the way of a complete UC solution from vendors.
With Cisco, it’s also fair to mention UMI – twice. First was their video-based media offering for consumers, which I would call UC for the home. This iteration of UMI did not take flight and was shuttered last January. Fast forward to today, and Cisco has bookended the year of exits by announcing end of support for UMI videoconferencing gear in January 2013. I’m citing these because they’re both about video, and utilize relatively expensive endpoints. Desktop video is a very different value proposition, and all the major vendors are struggling to figure this out. For Cisco, Jabber is very much the right path, and they’ll be fine, but it’s taken a few false steps to get here.
Enough about the Big 3 – there are other forces that will make and keep video a leading story in 2013. These three vendors may own most of the customers, but a lot of the innovation around desktop video is coming from the startups and pure plays. There are several out there, but ones to watch include Vidtel, Blue Jeans, Vidyo, and Glowpoint. Desktop video has its own set of challenges, and these companies are laying a lot of the groundwork to make this a viable business opportunity and driver for UC. Examples include refining the H.265 codec, developing the right channels and routes to market, and federating across the IM platforms to make video more accessible.
On a grander scale, two other developments could really accelerate the adoption curve for desktop video. First is the cloud, which is the basis for the above-mentioned pure plays. All the UC vendors are rushing to have cloud-based UC platforms, and given the low cost for desktop video, these trends should complement each other nicely.
The other trend is potentially the big elephant in the room – WebRTC. UCStrategies has been on this from the start, and our portal is great resource for getting up to speed on WebRTC. I’m not an expert in this emerging standard, but it plays very much with these themes. The ability to access applications like video from any browser – without plug-ins or downloads – promotes ease-of-use, and reinforces the value of the desktop. Of course, it will do the same for other Internet-accessible endpoints such as smartphones, tablets and another space I think is primed for growth – digital kiosks and smart wayfinding systems.
On the flip side, as this trend rides upward, the value of the desk phone will continue to drop. I’m not ready to say the desk phone is irrelevant, but I believe this notion will gain mainstream attention in 2013, largely because video is emerging as a better way to communicate. Are you with me, or is your vision for video different?