Mobile Slows

There’s been some indications that mobile is slowing. There were few smartphone announcements at CES, and now Apple stock is down largely because iPhone demand appears to be slowing. Microsoft has not seen the sales it expected on its Windows Phone or new Surface tablet. Surface sales are estimated at about half of what Microsoft was expecting.

One might be tempted to ask: Is the mobile party over?

Don’t believe it for a second. Mobile will continue to thrive in 2013.

1. Apple is far from dead on the iPhone. Though personally I’m not a big fan, especially of the iPhone5 - my personal tastes don’t affect their sales. The U.S. is certainly showing signs of saturation, but the U.S. isn’t a big market. Neither AT&T or Verizon are even in the top 10 of largest mobile carriers. But the Chinese (who evidently love Apple) offer a far bigger market opportunity. Apply could sell 300 million more phones there and that’s with a modest 25 percent market share based on expected market size. The cellular iPad mini is just launching there now.
   
   
2. RIM launches their new devices in January. A whole new platform that appears to have a reasonable amount of new and exciting features. RIM has a large base of loyal users (and enterprises) that have been waiting. They are about to stop waiting - the question is, will they be buying RIM, or other devices?
   
   
3. Samsung has promised major announcements at its upcoming annual Forum in Monaco during February. Expectations include the Galaxy S4 and possibly a Linux-based phone.
   
   
4. Rumors exist that Google is working on a new Nexus phone through its Motorola acquisition.
   
   
5. Phablets are expected to have a great year in 2013. IHS ISuppli is forecasting the number of shipments for tablets to double in 2013. Such as Huawei’s new Ascent Mate with a 6.1” screen.
   
   
6. In North America, Verizon and AT&T have become more aggressive with hosted UC solutions. I expect those customers to soon see enhanced features such as integrated softkeys appear on mobile devices.
   
   
7. Personal video solutions from the major vendors of video conferencing continue to be an important part of their portfolios. Expect ongoing enhancements that truly leverage multi-modal communications on mobile devices.

This could be the calm before the storm. Mobile is just catching its breath before another banner year.