Mobile Predictions for 2014
Mobile Predictions for 2014 by Michael F. Finneran
Well it’s that time of year we pundits start cranking out our predictions for the coming year. Of course those of us who follow the mobile space shudder at that prospect given our industry’s undiminished ability to surprise and confound. Be that as it may, here’s what I’m expecting in the coming year.
Smartphones: The Apple-Android duopoly will continue, though the Android share will continue to dwarf Apple’s and even surpass the 4-to-1 advantage we see today as smartphone sales in developing countries take off. Apple will remain the premier brand, and will continue to command a premium price, even for “economy” models like the iPhone 5c. Given its hardware roots, Samsung will continue to struggle on the software front, though it should work out its Knox difficulties and offer a platform with enterprise security capabilities equivalent to Apple.
Windows Phone will have another frustrating year trying to attract app developers and establish a meaningful foothold in the consumer space. Unfortunately, the consumer market is the only market that matters, so failure there equates to failure across the board, and you need more than a solid platform to break the logjam. With a new CEO in place BlackBerry becomes a bit of a “wild card,” though I’m afraid the hand they’re holding is “Aces-and-eights.”
Tablets: Clearly, tablet sales will continue to eat into laptops, and like we’ve seen in the smartphone segment, lower-cost Android models will outsell iPads – though Apple will remain the “premium brand.” The interesting area to watch will be Windows tablets like the Microsoft Surface Pro and similar offerings that can offer an attractive touch interface for “fun” activities like web surfing, media consumption, and email – well, maybe that one’s not so much “fun.” However, as they run a Windows operating system, they can also be used to do “real work” with a full Office suite, so they could become the combo-device of choice for Windows desktop users – they’re not winning over any Mac users. That will further eat into laptop sales, particularly as more organizations move to BYOD, but the question is how big a factor they’ll be in the market. Finally, I don’t see Apple following suit with an iPad running OS X.
BYOD: The surge continues, and we will start to see “standard” reimbursement plans adopted. Shifting the cost of a smartphone from the organization to the user is a human resources issue, and companies will have to determine how far they will be able to push. Many have already cut the smartphone stipend to zero, but others still continue to underwrite part of the cost. And for the time being, the majority of mobile devices accessing corporate email is still company-provided. While we’ve heard the idea of a COPE (“Company-Owned, Personal Enabled”) plans bandied about, I don’t see it happening. With the exception of those with intense security requirements, the move to personal ownership continues, but companies will have to assess how much of the financial burden they can push onto the employee. A word to the wise, when the economy is weak and people are fearing for their jobs, companies are in a strong position to tighten the screws, When the economy improves, some of those people will be looking for more accommodating places to work.
MDM/EMM: Mobile device management (that now includes mobile applications management and mobile content management) has morphed into enterprise mobility management (EMM), and will continue to be a growth area as companies come to recognize the need to secure data and applications on this increasing population of employee-owned mobile devices. However, just as SAP bought Sybase, Symantec bought Nucona and Odyssey Software, BlackBerry bought ubitexx, Citrix bought Zenprise, and IBM bought Fiberlink, the acquisitions will continue, and we will likely see AirWatch and MobileIron go the same way this year. Research tells us that only about 40 percent of enterprises have invested in an MDM solution (though over 60 percent have BYOD policies in place), and roughly a third rely on the rudimentary MDM capabilities inherent in Exchange ActiveSync; in short, there’s still room for growth. However, MDM will likely disappear as a standalone market in the very near term, so the remaining specialty outfits will have to partner up with one of the “big boys” to survive.
Mobile Payments: In the US, mobile payments will continue to sputter as consumers and merchants alike are befuddled by the array of technology options before them. Probably the single biggest obstacle is Apple’s continued refusal to endorse and adopt NFC. A change in attitude on that front could be a “game changer.”
Mobile Apps: The fun will continue, and companies will continue to pursue mobile as a means to create stronger bonds with customers. That will also include solutions that better integrate the contact center. While you would hope that most of these initiatives would be “opt in,” in light of the distressing NSA disclosures over the past year, many consumers appear to have given up on any expectation of privacy. With companies capitalizing on that reality, we can certainly expect more geofencing and passive shopper behavior monitoring, and those technologies could eventually be adopted in other non-commercial arenas like schools, parks and museums.
Mobile UC: If we’re talking about the mobile UC clients the UC vendors have been trying to push, that’s still a non-starter. While the UC vendors would like to think they’re “relevant” in the mobile space, that is just an ongoing delusion they choose to embrace. Mobile UC is happening, but it’s taking the form of native applications on smartphones and tablets that are incorporating capabilities that we in the enterprise call “UC.” Our smartphones let us sync our calendars and contacts, click-to-call/text/email, automatically string our related correspondence together, and do it in a way that users love. Then the UC vendors try to make us use their lame knock-off clients to do the same thing and, not surprisingly, users give them the brush off. In the meantime, “a mobile UC client and a strong statement regarding mobility” will be key a RFP check-off in any UC assessment – laughable.
Wearables: Still way early in the adoption curve and dominated by Bluetooth headsets (yeah, that’s a “wearable”), activity monitors (not embraced by the “sedentary”), and smartwatches (not embraced by anyone). Physical fitness buffs are scarfing up activity monitors, but judging by the waistlines I’m seeing, that’s not a mass market. As smartwatches continue to do more and integrate better, I do expect users to recognize how they could make life better and more convenient, but that will likely take another product generation or two. Google Glass? “A bridge too far.”
So that’s how I see the mobility market shaping up for 2014. My last prediction is that I will continue to enjoy bringing you updates and my frank opinions here on UCStrategies.com.
Happy New Year!